/pol/ - International /Pol/itics & /Bant/er

If you don't talk about OIL you think the recent wars are about "security" or "nationalism" or "anti imperialism" then you are a fed who defends the US oil industry by distracting from what's actually going on.

So let's talk OIL. World oil consumption is now 103 mbd (million barrels/day). This number is expected to peak in 2030 and depending on decarbonization scenarios, it could decline to between 50 mbd and 80 mbd by 2050.

Now take a good look at the oil production by countries. And look at the reserves.

What does all this tell you? It tells us that oil revenues and profits are going to tank in the coming 20 years. And oil is one of the last major profit centers in capitalism.

It's not a coincidence that major oil producers like Iran, Russia, USA, Gulf, Venezuela are all the major players in recent geopolitical upheavals. This is not a world war. This is a war specifically between oil producers trying to expand marketshare in a world of shrinking oil demand and profits.

Now there's another crucial aspect to consider here - that is the cost of production. The Gulf can produce oil cheaper than anywhere else in the world, while US and Venezuela oil needs prices to remain above $60 to be profitable.

Now can you connect the dots? In a shrinking oil world, it's the Gulf/Iran that will win out at the end by being the last remaining oil producing area that can produce profitable at very low prices. The US/Venezuela will have to sell at near cost to have any marketshare, and that's assuming they're still able to have any marketshare at all.

But the US and Gulf are mostly allies so instead of fighting each other, they've decided to neutralize the Iranian and Russian oil industry. This achieves the common benefit of both sides maintaining their marketshare while keeping prices high which benefits both US/Venezuela.