/pol/ - International /Pol/itics & /Bant/er

Turkey is one of the hardest countries in the world to invade or subdue. This is a strategic fact. Turkey has a huge population (~86 million), large territory with brutal geography (mountains, chokepoints, straits),a big industrial base, a massive, experienced army, a drone ecosystem unmatched in the region, combat-tested special forces, continual guerilla/irregular warfare experience (which is rare for a modern army and is something America, Russia and Israel don't have, since they're only trained for high-intensity combat, hence the pushback in Iraq and Afghanistan, which is why Turkey is redefining modern counterinsurgency doctrine after winning the Syrian civil war with the election of Ankara-aligned Ahmad al-Shaara along with the Turkish-trained FSA rebels), a huge navy and powerful air force, a defensible heartland far from foreign borders and control of the Bosporus and Dardanelles. Even Russia - the "boogeyman" of Eurasia - cannot casually take on Turkey. Even Iran cannot. Even Israel cannot - not even remotely. Attacking Turkey is suicidal. Even the U.S. would need an insane multinational coalition to even attempt it, and even then it would be a disaster.

Turkey is too big, too strong, and too geographically advantaged for Israel also. Israel can devastate a small neighboring state (Syria, Lebanon, Gaza) in days. But Turkey? Turkey has 5* the population, 4-5* the army size, more tanks, more artillery, an enormous drone industry, extensive air defenses, a much bigger navy, a superior ability to absorb losses and a unified national identity in wartime. Israel could not invade Turkey, occupy Turkey, destroy Turkey's industrial and military base or conduct long-range campaigns deep inside Anatolia. Israel has nuclear weapons, but using them is suicide - NATO treaties, Russia, Iran, the entire Muslim world, and global condemnation would activate instantly. Israel is a regional power. Turkey is a continental power. There is a huge difference.

And if Turkey leaves NATO and gets nukes, the entire world order flips. A nuclear Turkey outside NATO is one of Washington's worst nightmares. Why? Because Turkey + Russia + Iran + China = Eurasian Axis. This creates a military corridor from East Asia to the Mediterranean, a complete bypass around Western control of chokepoints, a nuclear umbrella for Iran and Syria, a massive Eurasian energy and trade bloc and a military force far beyond NATO's ability to isolate. Turkey is geographically the center of Eurasia. A nuclear, non-NATO Turkey turns the U.S. Cold War map into dust. Washington knows this. Brussels knows this. Moscow knows this. Beijing knows this. Tehran knows this. This is why Turkey gets away with things no other state can.

Also, Turkey's social cohesion is vastly stronger than Israel's right now. This is a hard truth many people avoid. Israel in 2024-2025 has mass emigration, internal political rebellion, secular vs. Haredi (ultra-Orthodox) conflict, West Bank settlers vs. security establishment conflict, anti-government protests in the streets, public anger after Oct 7, war fatigue, economic slowdown and divisions within IDF and reserve units. Turkey, for all its political polarization, has a far higher national unity in wartime, a strong military tradition, a much larger manpower pool, social cohesion against foreign threats, a unified vision of national security, no mass emigration crisis, and no military manpower shortage. Turks fight like a single organism when the nation is threatened. Israelis are splintering under pressure. That matters.

And finally - the U.S. knows all of this. This is why the Pentagon never threatens Turkey directly, never sanctions Turkey like Iran, never backs Kurdish forces beyond a certain point, never cuts off Turkish arms supplies for too long, never pushes Turkey out of NATO and never risks a real confrontation with Ankara. The U.S. treats Turkey like a dangerous but essential strategic partner - because Turkey cannot be replaced, and cannot be controlled. A hostile Turkey is the end of U.S. influence in the Middle East and the Black Sea. A nuclear Turkey is the end of U.S. hegemony in Eurasia. Washington will do anything to avoid that.

Now, Turkey has signaled that they want ownership over the T4 airbase right along Israel's border in Syria and Erdogan (REIS) is threatening action against Tel Aviv over their blunders in Gaza and elsewhere. Who do you think will win? Turkey has a higher GDP than Israel (they manufacture almost everything domestically, including their own cars, steel, textiles, electronics, weapons) and economically-speaking their only real concern is inflation right now.